US economy is in the midst of one of its longest hot streaks dating back to 1854

The US economy is stacking up wins, even if it doesn't feel that way for many households because of the resurgence in inflation.

The economy has now posted 78 consecutive months of expansion, the sixth-longest business cycle since 1854, per new analysis from The Kobeissi Letter. This is well above the long-term average of 49 months and the median of 38 months.

By comparison, the longest period for the US economy without a recession was between 2009 and 2020, at 128 months. The record of course was broken by the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, which ground the economy to a halt.
"Unconventional monetary policy, historically large budget deficits, alongside the AI investment boom, appear to be extending the duration of business cycles. The data says the US economy is remarkably strong," The Kobeissi Letter team said.

Economy continues to expand.

Meanwhile, the US economy is nearing an impressive achievement on the unemployment front.

The US unemployment rate is nearing a record number of consecutive months below 5%, Truist chief strategist Keith Lerner said in a note on Monday. The longtime record dates back to the mid-1960s.

It's a worthwhile perspective to keep in mind as markets attempt to rationalize a surprisingly weak September jobs report.

Employers added just 29,000 jobs, far below economists' expectations for roughly 90,000 and below the prior 12-month average monthly gain of 45,000.

A huge American Flag is displayed on the field before the National Anthem at Great American Ball Park before a baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Baltimore Orioles in Cincinnati, Saturday, July 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) · AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

July's employment was revised from a 21,000 gain to a 10,000 decline, and August's employment was cut from 162,000 to 133,000. That put the two-month revision at 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, while the labor-force participation rate held at 61.8%, suggesting the rise in unemployment was modest rather than a sign of a sudden labor-market collapse.

"The US expansion is intact," BCA Research chief economist Peter Berezin wrote in a note on Tuesday.

Source: Yahoo Finance