Everything to know about mortgage interest rates before the October Fed meeting
Mortgage interest rates change daily based on market conditions. And, lately, there seem to be a lot of market conditions to keep an eye on.
With news surrounding the government shutdown, unemployment, inflation, and Federal Reserve interest rate policy all impacting mortgage rates (not to mention the 10-year Treasury yield), homebuyers and owners looking to refinance may be experiencing a bit of whiplash currently. And that dynamic is unlikely to change over the next week with a new Federal Reserve meeting set to conclude on October 29.
But changes here don't always have to be problematic, and they could actually work to the benefit of homebuyers and owners, if leveraged strategically. That begins with having the information you need to make an informed and data-driven decision. Before getting started with an application, then, it helps to know a few things about mortgage interest rates before the October Fed meeting. Below, we'll break down everything to know right now.
Start by seeing how low your current mortgage interest rate offers are here.
Everything to know about mortgage interest rates before the October Fed meeting
Not sure if now is the right time to buy or refinance? Here are the answers to a series of important questions that can help determine your next move (or lack thereof):
What are today's mortgage and mortgage refinance interest rates?
The average mortgage interest rate on a 30-year term is now 6.19%, according to FreddieMac, while the median rate on a 15-year refinance is 5.72%, according to Money. Both are markedly higher than they were at the start of the decade, but they're also significantly lower than they were a few years ago, when mortgage rates were at their highest level since 2000. And, historically, they're about in line with average rates from the past.
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How have rates changed since the Fed cut rates in September?
Mortgage interest rates dropped to a three-year low of just 6.13% right before the Fed announced its September 2025, 25-basis-point rate cut. They then rose in the weeks after before falling again last week and this week. Now at 6.19%, mortgage rates may fall again next week in anticipation of the Fed's next rate cut, although any movement there may be minor, as many lenders will have preemptively "priced in" an October 29 rate reduction.
How have mortgage rates changed so far in 2025?
Despite some conventional thinking that rates just fell in September, a closer inspection shows that rates have been gradually declining for all of 2025. The average mortgage interest rate in mid-January was 7.04%, meaning that today's averages represent real savings for buyers, especially over a 30-year repayment period.
What will happen in the October Fed meeting?
There's a 96.7% chance that the Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate from a current range of 4.00% to 4.25% down to 3.75% to 4.00%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. While only a minor reduction, every little bit helps, and another cut here could impact mortgage rates in a way that justifies purchasing or refinancing in a way that would have simply been unaffordable earlier this year or in 2024.
Will rates fall in November without a Fed meeting?
With no Fed meeting on the calendar for November, mortgage rates will be largely impacted by other factors next month. That can include additional inflation data, unemployment (which, if higher, could encourage a more aggressive rate-cutting strategy from the Fed) and the government shutdown. Don't assume, however, that rates will remain steady minus a Fed meeting, as any number of these factors could interact with each other in a way that causes mortgage rates to jump or fall again.
How does the latest inflation news impact mortgage rates?
It's complicated. On one hand, a rising inflation rate generally discourages the Fed from cutting rates and, thus, causes mortgage rates to stagnate. At the same time, expectations for an October Fed rate cut have been so strong that Friday's inflation report release did little to diminish expectations.
However, if this inflation rise is a sign of additional increases ahead, it could stop the Fed's rate-cutting action entirely and, if it truly worsens, could even cause the bank to reverse course and raise rates. It's too soon to tell what will happen, but overall, an inflation rate increase is traditionally not good news for borrowers, including those in the mortgage space.
What should you do while waiting for mortgage rates to fall further?
If you can afford today's mortgage or mortgage refinance rates now, it may be smart to lock them in, even if they're not quite ideal. Don't forget that rates here rose after the September 2024 and September 2025 Fed rate cuts. And, there's no guarantee that it won't happen again.
If you find it more cost-effective to wait, however, don't sit idle. Make sure to check your credit report for errors or inaccuracies, boost your credit score as high as you can and start shopping for lenders now, so you know which one is right for you when you actually are ready to make a move.
The bottom line
The mortgage interest rate climate is evolving, but it's difficult to determine in which direction, exactly. By being a well-read and informed buyer or refinancer, however, you can better determine which moves to make now and which to delay making for the future. Consider also speaking with some lenders, directly, who can answer any questions you may have and help you build a tailored buying or refinancing plan that works for you in this unique atmosphere.